Treaty-led Trade Expansion without Unbalancing Competitive Relationships or Dismantling Producer Sensitivities EU – Mercosur – Ukraine Agrifood Trade

Trade security is a pivotal element in turbulent times. The new megaregional treaty between Mercosur and the EU will set a geopolitical milestone for better trade and global food security in a world of turmoil. Add Ukraine as another major player despite the aggression from Russia, and you get a new “default” food treaty picture looking like a somewhat strange triangle between three food giants. Given the many sensitivities especially in Europe, there can be no free lunch with a full glass of free food trade: all menu recipes – including new and especially powerful agricultural safeguards - are still concocted in Brussels, instead of based on fully reciprocal concessions and global standards. Moreover, only the EU will have treaties with the other two giants, and with countless other countries. Nevertheless, the European Commission rightly calls the treaty with Mercosur a ‘groundbreaking’ partnership agreement for Europe’s economy. It also promises EU farmers more exports and only minimally increasing imports. This Working Paper asks three questions on (i) the recognition of defensive food import interests, (ii) the treatment of specifically European environmental and social concerns, and (iii) Ukraine’s EU market access guarantees under rapidly evolving preferential terms. To heap more problems on this conundrum, WTO compatibility questions and market share expectations of competitive agrifood behemoths enjoying new preferences throw a light on the residual value of EU concessions agreed earlier under WTO and other RTA. Perhaps a WTO silver bullet like the one solving the infamous banana dispute can help finding a legal win-win solution for all food value chain participants?

*WTI Fellow (PhD, Law). Adjudicator in WTO and RTA disputes including (i) EC-Bananas III, and (ii) Restrictions applied by Ukraine on exports of certain wood products to the European Union.

Note: This is a working paper not designed for academic publication, which gathers some of the author’s personal experiences. Materials used here include:

• Research funded by the MATS Project (Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable), as a part of the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant agreement no 101000751 MATS (https://sustainable-agri-trade.eu/)
• Texts prepared for, paid but not used by the Brussels-based consultancy Trade-Up – Impact of an EU-MERCOSUR FTA on EU-Ukraine Agricultural Trade and Investment Relations.